To ask His Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the impact a possible El Niño event later this year would have on public services; and what advice they are preparing for businesses and for the general public.

My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper, and I draw attention to my registered interest as the chair of the National Preparedness Commission.

My Lords, El Niño is just one of a number of climatic drivers that can influence UK weather patterns. Any potential impacts will depend on how these drivers combine; this will be assessed in more detail later on in the year as forecasts evolve. The Government continue to take action to strengthen the UK’s resilience against severe weather events. The national risk register details the wide-ranging impacts of severe weather to ensure that comprehensive contingency plans are in place.

My Lords, I am grateful to my noble friend the Minister for that Answer. Some 46 months ago today, the UK suffered its highest recorded temperature—40 degrees in London —which led to nearly 300 premature deaths in London alone and possibly 3,000 deaths across the country. It also led to the fire brigade in London being called out because of the associated wildfires; that marked its busiest time since the Blitz in the Second World War, and, if you look nationally, there has been a pattern of an increasing number of wildfires. Can my noble friend the Minister say what steps are being taken, if not in preparation for an El Niño-related heat event then in preparation for any other heat event, to ensure both that the fire service has the necessary resources and that hospitals and the public are aware of the implications of that sort of event?

My noble friend is absolutely right: 2022 was the UK’s hottest year on record and saw over 20,000 hectares of land in England burned, the destruction of over 70 properties across the UK and at least 14 fire and rescue services declaring major incidents in their areas, as well as 2,985 excess deaths. We have to learn from each event as it happens and make sure that the lessons learned are reflected in our resilience plans going forward, which is why we now have a severe weather resilience network, which is led by COBRA but includes MHCLG and the Department of Health as key aspects of it. We need to make sure that the most vulnerable are protected and that those who need resources, whether at a local or national level, have what they need to keep us all safe.

My Lords, some local authorities have in the past identified places such as churches, which may provide cool shelter during very high temperature periods. Are the Government doing any work with local authorities to make information available for those kinds of preventative action as and when it might be needed?

The noble Baroness is absolutely right. We saw during Covid and see during every crisis moment that communities come together, and the church and faith communities tend to be at the heart of a response. Details about how communities can respond are available on gov.uk/prepare, which outlines not just what is available and what individuals can do but what communities can do to prepare for any extreme event, whether related to a pandemic or to severe weather. We thank everyone who steps up at times of national emergency, especially those within our faith communities who take local leadership roles.

My Lords, returning to the debate we had about adaptation to climate change, would the Minister agree with me that, as well as having the plans in place for how we respond to an immediate emergency, we have to look at the longer term? This has happened already, and it will happen more. Does she agree that we need to design and adapt buildings so that they are comfortable and safe for people during hot weather episodes?

The noble Baroness is absolutely right: for hot weather and any form of extreme weather, we need to reflect that in design but also in how we look after each other. The national security strategy references climate change 12 times. This is a core part of who we are. As my noble friend referenced, we are seeing an increase in number of wildfires year on year as our climate changes. In preparation for this Question, there was a meeting with the Met Office to talk about the extremes and how we analyse them. It is also about the new modelling that we can do: how we will use AI in addition to traditional modelling so that we can better assess long-term patterns too is important, so that we can make sure that, as a Government, we are working across all sectors, whether building in design or working with our schools and hospitals to make sure they have the right resilience plans in place as and when needed.

My Lords, I very much welcome this Question. The coolest years are now warmer than the warmest years used to be, and all the signs are that we have a record weather event coming up over the next two summers. Can I also return to wildfires? I think they are really important. I know the Government are developing their strategy and action plan. Noble Lords have mentioned 2022 already, but can the Minister reassure me that the lessons from that particular incident are being learned? She may need to write to me, but can I ask what actual fixed and rotary wing aircraft we have available for fighting wildfires, and what consideration is being given to increasing that resource?

The noble Earl is absolutely right: I will have to write him with the detail of the number of planes available for use at that point, because, at a time of national crisis, we obviously also divert resources from other parts of the country if required. On learning steps, I think we absolutely have learned. We have to learn from each new event, because there are unique parts that come through. There is now a national resilience wildfire adviser in post to make sure that we are doing co-ordinated work. I had a very reassuring conversation with my noble friend Lord Roe yesterday about the lessons that have been learned from the fire service and how we operate in the round in this space.

My Lords, is the Minister aware that the emergency alerts that one can sign up for via the Prepare website are available in English and Welsh only? If there is going to be an El Niño event later this year, will she commit to taking urgent action to make sure that emergency alerts are available in other languages, apart from English and Welsh, so that everybody can have the information and protection that they need?

The noble Baroness raises an important point that I was not aware of. I will speak to officials and come back to her.

My Lords, the weather is, of course, borderless. What contingent planning have His Majesty’s Government undertaken to mitigate the combined impact of potential shortages of essential supplies—including fertiliser, which is so important to British farmers—that might arise from the conflict in the Gulf and from a possible super El Niño event in 2026?

The noble Baroness is right that each crisis moment is different and that we need to ensure that we have strong foundations, which I believe we do as a country in our resilience planning. COBRA is a very effective co-ordinating tool to make sure that we know that we are on top of all those challenges and that we can make assessments as and when required in this space.

My noble friend the Minister is clearly aware of the urgency of this situation and the demands across government that we must respond to it. The sector is now increasingly asking government to adopt a whole-of-government approach to develop a more resilient society. What thinking is taking place in government to ensure that we prioritise national resilience in the face of these weather systems? Is there a need for a more centralised approach to give more leadership to develop that resilient society?

My noble friend is right, which is why the severe weather resilience network exists. It is led by COBRA and includes Defra, MHCLG, the Department of Health, DCMS, the Department for Education, DESNZ, DSIT, the Home Office, the Ministry of Defence, UKHSA and the devolved Governments, who meet and co-ordinate a response to any and all severe weather events. As the noble Baroness from the Opposition Benches stated, there are no borders in this space, especially with regards to weather, so making sure that the devolved Governments and the devolved space also have a co-ordinated response is key. I am really hoping someone asks me about the weather for the weekend because I can tell the House.

My Lords, I am not going to ask the Minister about the weather for the weekend. I am going to ask her about a debate around how we tackle wildfires. There is a view that in order to tackle wildfires we have to remove scrub, but at the same time people believe that that reduces biodiversity. There is clearly a tension in wanting to reduce wildfires while keeping biodiversity. What is the Government’s perspective on that balance and how do we make sure that we land in the right place?

The noble Lord is right that there are challenges here, as there are in all issues, about how we balance protection and environmental developments to make sure that the answers work for each community. There will be different answers in different parts of the country depending on their land and the local environment. Some of this is a very localised response, which is why we have local resilience forums to make sure that that is working. If the noble Lord has something specific, I am more than happy to come back to him. I would like to reassure noble Lords that this weekend it will be warm with the chance of thundery showers at times with the highest temperatures reaching into the mid to high 20s in the south-east of England.